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Deanship of Graduate Studies
Document Details
Document Type
:
Thesis
Document Title
:
Assessment of coupled global climate models for seasonal climate predictability over Saudi Arabia
تقييم نماذج المناخ العالمي المقترنة لتوقع المناخي الفصلي فوق المملكة العربية السعودية
Subject
:
Department of Meteorology
Document Language
:
Arabic
Abstract
:
This work describes the assessment of Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) for seasonal climate prediction over Saudi Arabia for the period 1981-2002. The 22-year hindcast experiments for the season November to January (NDJ) are performed by using the AOGCM of the Seoul National University (SNU) model, and the results are compared with observational gridded data as well as with the datasets of seven fully coupled models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) project. The ability of the individual models is revealed through various statistical methods. The precipitation and temperature analyses show that the SNU model performed better than the DEMETER models in terms of mean climatology, bias, annual cycle and variability. However, it has relatively low anomaly correlation over the study area. The signal-to-noise ratio shows that the SNU model and the DEMETR models have high predictability skills over the tropical region; however none of the models shows significant predictability skills over Saudi Arabia. Improvements in the SNU model, such as increasing horizontal resolution and vertical levels, improving parameterization and model initialization, may lead to better seasonal climate predictability in the study area.
Supervisor
:
Dr. Mansour Almazroui
Thesis Type
:
Master Thesis
Publishing Year
:
1433 AH
2012 AD
Co-Supervisor
:
dr. Nazrul Islam
Added Date
:
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Researchers
Researcher Name (Arabic)
Researcher Name (English)
Researcher Type
Dr Grade
Email
محمد أزهر احسان الله
Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar
Researcher
Master
Files
File Name
Type
Description
33411.pdf
pdf
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